The recession officially ended in June 2009, but if you ask millions of Americans who are still struggling, they’ll say the recession is as deep as ever. Now, there are those who say the job market will remain “unhealthy” for at least four more years.
If that pans out, it will the longest time period of high unemployment since World War II. Numbers for June are due out later this week and the predictions are as wild as the overall economy.
Same Challenges
Many analysts are saying it matters little who takes the White House in November. The challenges will be the same, even if they’re approaching the challenges from different perspectives. Neither Romney or Obama are bringing forth solutions on any real level and simply don’t know how to tackle the continued many challenges.
It’s been so long since a healthy unemployment number was seen that many don’t know what would define a healthy sector. One economics professor at the University of Central Florida, Sean Snaith, says the health “5% to 6%” rate won’t be seen until at least 2016 and it’s likely to be closer to 2017. Unemployment is at 8.2%.
Election Day
In the AP survey that questioned American economists for their views, it was revealed election day would arrive with unemployment numbers not lower than 8%. This won’t bode well for either candidate as this would also mean the highest rate for any post war president. Obama will likely take a harder hit than Romney since many believe Obama didn’t do enough in the first four years. Still, there are those who say they’re still waiting to hear what Romney’s short term and long term solutions would be.
May Factor
When news broke that American employers added only 69,000 jobs in May, fears grew once again that the economy simply wasn’t recovering. Those numbers in May represented the third straight month of disappointing job growth.
The economists also said they believed the economy would only grow very slowly. With an anticipated 2.3 GDP growth by the end of the year, the economists insist it’s entirely too weak to sustain any significant drop in unemployment.
Europe’s financial woes are contributing to low confidence in the U.S. Those experts say any bail out efforts would not serve its purpose. The biggest threat, however, are the tax increases that are slated to kick in as of January 1.
Congress must come to a more permanent agreement to steer this fast moving train away from those increases and spending cuts. And, too, the new catchphrase in recent weeks is “fiscal cliff”, which many analysts say could tip the country back into a recession.
Consumer Factor
Consumers are being far more cautious with their spending and credit cards, businesses are holding back on hiring, partly because of the controversial Obamacare and the Supreme Court ruling and the government is under tighter scrutiny with its spending. These dynamics all come together to define a really complicated financial outlook. The goal is to stimulate growth, but when nothing bends, the entire system stands to be broken.
This also means the election in November is more important than ever. If the candidates are hoping for any kind of sweep, the only sure fire way to accomplish that is with solid solutions for the stagnant economy, weak employment and the resistance and hesitance about stimulating the economy. Americans simply aren’t buying into excuses.
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